Don't believe the hype. When Donald Trump jumped on Truth Social to declare that a peace deal with Iran is "now complete" and shouted "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!", global markets definitely took a breath. Oil futures dipped. Everyone wants to think a 100-day war that choked off a fifth of the world's energy supply is magically over.
But if you think maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is going right back to normal when the official papers are signed in Switzerland this Friday, you are reading the wrong headlines. Discover more on a similar subject: this related article.
What Washington and Tehran actually shook hands on isn't a final, comprehensive treaty. It's a temporary, highly volatile 14-point memorandum of understanding. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatari mediators spent weeks grinding out this temporary truce. Sure, it stops the active shooting across all fronts, including Lebanon. It pulls back the American naval blockade on Iranian ports. But it leaves the explosive issues—like what actually happens to Iran's nuclear program and who really controls the waters—totally unresolved.
This isn't the end of the crisis. It's just the start of a very dangerous clock ticking down. More reporting by TIME delves into comparable views on the subject.
The Fine Print Washington and Tehran Aren't Talking About
Let's look at what is actually on the table. The deal sets up a 60-day negotiation window. To get Iran to stop shooting, the United States had to agree to a massive concession: releasing $24 billion to $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
That money is supposed to flow during the 60 days while negotiators try to figure out how to dismantle a nuclear program that took heavy hits from US and Israeli airstrikes earlier this year. Trump claims Iran no longer wants a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi is telling state media that this agreement "does not signify trust in the enemy" and was drafted in an atmosphere of deep, ongoing distrust.
Does that sound like permanent peace to you?
Then you have the massive internal backlash inside Iran. Hardliners are already protesting outside foreign ministry offices in cities like Mashhad. They are screaming betrayal because they think the regime gave up its best economic leverage: the ability to choke the global economy at the Strait of Hormuz.
The Logistics Nightmare Inside the Strait
Trump says the strait will be permanently toll-free and fully open once the official signing ceremony wraps up on June 19. That's a great talking point. The reality on the water is a logistical mess.
Iran's state-run media is already reporting that marine traffic through the Persian Gulf and the strait will be regulated under "Iranian arrangements" coordinated with Oman. That directly clashes with the American idea of a completely open international waterway.
If you are running a shipping company, you aren't sending a $200 million liquefied natural gas tanker into those waters just because of a social media post. Energy markets run on certainty. Right now, there is zero certainty.
- The Mine Problem: The war saw heavy mining and drone attacks. The US Defense Department says it's rushing to secure safe passage, but clearing naval mines takes weeks of tedious, dangerous work.
- The Insurance Nightmare: Maritime insurance syndicates aren't going to drop their war-risk premiums overnight. Transiting the strait is going to stay incredibly expensive for months.
- Infrastructure Destruction: The war caused severe structural damage to regional energy infrastructure. Export facilities like Ras Laffan face long repair timelines before they can hit pre-war output levels.
The Wildcard in Jerusalem
The biggest threat to this fragile truce isn't even coming from Washington or Tehran. It's coming from Israel.
The text of the deal claims a permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn't sign this piece of paper. Just hours before Trump announced the deal was complete, Israeli jets slammed into infrastructure in Beirut. The attack infuriated Trump, who reportedly fumed at Netanyahu on a phone call because the strikes delayed the peace announcement by several hours.
Israel has made it clear that while it might pause ground operations in southern Lebanon, it has no intention of completely abandoning its established security zones. If Hezbollah retaliates against Israeli positions, or if Israel decides the US-Iran deal gives Tehran too much room to breathe, the entire ceasefire collapses instantly.
What Happens on Saturday morning
The euphoria in the markets is going to fade fast. If you are watching this play out, don't look at the photo-op in Switzerland this Friday. Look at what happens on Saturday morning.
Watch the shipping registries to see if major tankers actually alter their routes back toward the Persian Gulf. Watch the regional oil prices; if they stay anchored near $90 instead of tumbling further, it means the big institutional players don't buy the peace narrative yet. Most importantly, watch the technical talks in Doha next week. If the US and Iran can't agree on how to verify the dilution of Iran's enriched uranium within the first 14 days of that 60-day window, expect the naval blockade to return and the strait to slam shut all over again. Keep your eyes on the actual movement of cargo, not the political speeches.
